A 2025 study warns global warming has accelerated by 50% since 2010, outpacing UN projections and increasing risks of climate tipping points.
In this study, climate scientist James E. Hansen and his team reveal that global warming has accelerated by more than 50% since 2010, far exceeding previous projections. The findings suggest that Earth is now warmer than at any point in the Holocene (the past 11,700 years) and comparable to the extreme warmth of the Eemian interglacial period (~120,000 years ago).
The study also raises serious concerns about climate models and global policies, arguing that the United Nations (UN) and the public are not fully informed about the true pace of climate change. Hansen’s analysis suggests that aerosol pollution previously masked some warming, and as emissions regulations have reduced aerosols, a “Faustian bargain” is unfolding—where short-term pollution control has triggered faster global warming.
Key Findings: A Sudden Acceleration in Warming
1. Global Warming Rate Has Increased by 50% Since 2010
The 1970–2010 warming rate was 0.18°C per decade. Since 2010, this rate has jumped to ~0.27°C per decade.
The recent El Niño event amplified this trend, but the warming far exceeds what can be explained by natural variability alone.
2. The Role of Aerosols: A “Faustian Bargain”
Human-made aerosols (pollution particles) have historically cooled the planet by reflecting sunlight.
Recent reductions in aerosol pollution—due to stricter air quality regulations, particularly in shipping emissions (IMO 2020)—have exposed hidden warming.
This means that past climate models underestimated warming because they didn’t fully account for the masking effect of aerosols.
3. The UN and Climate Models Have Underestimated Warming Risks
The IPCC’s climate sensitivity estimates (how much warming results from CO₂ doubling) may be too low.
The study suggests Earth’s true sensitivity to CO₂ is closer to 4.5°C per doubling, higher than the IPCC’s mid-range estimate of 3°C.
This means future warming could be faster and more severe than expected, increasing risks of tipping points and irreversible climate shifts.
What’s Driving the Acceleration?
El Niño Amplification
The 2023–2024 El Niño contributed about 0.07°C to recent warming, but this alone cannot explain the rapid temperature rise.
The long-term trend remains driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.
Ocean Changes and Ice Melt Feedbacks
The planet’s energy imbalance has increased, meaning more heat is being trapped than released.
Accelerating ice melt in Antarctica and Greenland could further destabilize the climate.
The Loss of Cooling Aerosols
Reductions in sulfur emissions from ships have likely contributed to at least 0.2°C of additional warming since 2020.
This suggests that aerosol pollution has been masking the full impact of CO₂ emissions for decades.
Implications: What This Means for the Future
The Paris Agreement May No Longer Be Feasible
Earth is already experiencing 12 months above 1.5°C warming, signaling that we are likely entering a permanent breach of the Paris climate target.
Even under aggressive emission reductions, the likelihood of keeping long-term warming below 1.5°C is rapidly shrinking.
Tipping Points Are Closer Than Expected
The study warns that major climate tipping points—such as permafrost thaw, ice sheet collapse, and Amazon rainforest dieback—may be triggered sooner than previously estimated.
The Need for More Urgent Climate Action
Hansen and his co-authors argue that net-zero targets must be accelerated and that carbon removal technologies may be needed sooner than expected.
Immediate policies should focus on reducing methane (CH₄), protecting forests, and accelerating renewable energy adoption.
Conclusion: A Climate Crisis Unfolding Faster Than Expected
This study presents one of the most urgent warnings yet that climate change is progressing at an accelerating pace, likely faster than what is reflected in current UN and IPCC projections.
Hansen’s team argues that policy and public awareness have not kept pace with the reality of climate change, and decisive action is needed now to avoid catastrophic consequences.
The findings underscore the need to reassess climate models, update risk projections, and treat global warming as an immediate emergency, not a distant threat.
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